And in the West….

Centrebet has the two main parties in the WA state election in a dead heat, both pay $1.85 for a win.

While Labor is down in the polls (neatly summed up in this oped by Peter van Onselen), Centrebet clearly thinks incumbency matters.

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6 Responses to And in the West….

  1. Steve Edney says:

    Andrew,

    Is there any restrictions of politicians themselves betting on these betting markets. In particular I was thinking with regard political parties and electoral funding. To what extent could they use betting markets to hedge their own financial exposure in the event of a particular outcome.

    Obivously speculation is also an option but I was thinking more in line of people with a financial result directly linked to the outcome.

  2. Andrew Leigh says:

    Steve, this is a superb notion. I’ve only ever heard of MPs spouses betting; and then only for the candidate, rather than for their opponent. But in principle, the abolition of the parliamentary superannuation scheme should make this an attractive alternative….

  3. Bryan Palmer says:

    Andrew, The odds on Gallup have lengthened at Centrebet. The Coalition is paying $1.60 for a win and Labor is paying $2.20. That translates to a win probability of 58% for the Coalition and 42% for Labor.

  4. Bryan Palmer says:

    Further shortening this moring. The Centrebet odds for a Coalition win are now $1.55 compared with $2.30 for Labor, which translates to a win probability of 60% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor.

  5. Andrew Leigh says:

    Bryan, I haven’t been following the campaign closely – have you got a nutshell explanation for this?

  6. Robert says:

    Someone in NSW dropped $10,000 on the Coalition.

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