I was just asked by an Australian e-zine to given them my predictions on an issue for 2006.
OK pundits, here is your opportunity â€¦ What are your predictions?
What will be the trends for example, in housing, work, education, families, eating habits and so on? Who will be the major global power? Where will there be wars? What will be the price of oil? In fact what are your predictions on anything at all …
I demurred, citing as evidence Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We Know?, which show that "experts" often do worse than coin tosses in predicting future events (more from Tyler Cohen). Still, if they do a five-year follow-up, we might at least learn something from this exercise.