Labor Pains

Posted on June 6, 2006 by

An update on the Centrebet odds. Labor is currently $2.25. Coalition $1.57. Take out the bookies’ profit margin, and it implies that the punters think that there’s a 41% chance that the ALP will win the Lodge, and a 59% chance the Coalition will retain it.

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8 Responses to Labor Pains

  1. Corin says:
    June 6, 2006 at 8:28 pm

    Andrew,

    41% must be a significant rise since this time last year: that must on the back of IR??

    That said, if Howard takes up Tax Credits – he will win the debate over IR – will he do it!

    I tend to think IR is different from Tax Reform – as the GST package had an inbuilt compensation package.

    I’d say a slogan such as Job, Jobs, Jobs, Compensation, Compensation, Compensation – might sum an ideal policy setting for the Libs.

    The Libs prospects look worse and worse the longer they delay this coming together.

    Wouldn’t it be ironic if the Libs rather than Labour take up the Gruen approach!

    Thoughts,
    Corin

  2. Patrick says:
    June 6, 2006 at 9:16 pm

    ‘I’d say a slogan such as Job, Jobs, Jobs, Compensation, Compensation, Compensation – might sum an ideal policy setting for the Libs.‘

    And that would be a piercing insight if this was 1996. But hasn’t that been their official mantra for the intervening 10 years?

  3. Matt Canavan says:
    June 6, 2006 at 10:42 pm

    Wouldn’t Labor be up on the speculation that Johnny will quit? If Howard runs, Labor has no chance, they will never get the swing necessary.

  4. Corin says:
    June 6, 2006 at 11:23 pm

    Patrick and Matt,

    Coalition has some problems that go to them being seen as ideologically motivated. Do you remember “mean and tricky”! Their administration (at least as far as presented in the press) has been poor over AWB etc etc – now they are “tricky and caught”!

    I’d suggest the big test though is whether people’s kids do worse under the AWA’s than now. In my view there is a kitchen table sentiment against the IR changes – but it isn’t a real negative at the moment – so long as the distributional effects of the changes are not felt in Middle Oz and the marginal seats.

    I’d suggest tax credits are the logical solution, but Howard is disinclined to use them because they have been ALP policy before.

    I’d suggest though – Labor faces a major hurdle at the next election in terms of convincing the electorate – if it says it will “tear up the new Act” and “throw it in the bin” – that small business may scream ALP equals “job destroyers”.

    A complete beat up on sides on this issue …… but hey that’s Lynton Crosby for you.

    Corin

  5. Simon Jackman says:
    June 7, 2006 at 5:56 am

    59% is not that far from the 64.5% Morgan is reporting as their estimate of the proportion of the electorate who think the Coalition will win the next Federal election (face-to-face polling done 5/20-21 and 5/27-28, nominal n=2,113). See http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2006/4030/

  6. Matt Cowgill says:
    June 7, 2006 at 3:15 pm

    While I think that earned income tax credits are a sensible policy idea, I think they’re far from the electoral panacea they’ve been painted as in this thread. Most people have a fairly limited engagement with the details of the tax-transfer system, so once the idea of a tax credit (with a freeze on the real value of the minimum wage) is filtered through the tabloid papers, Kochie, et al, the headlines will be “Howard cuts wages, boosts welfare” or something of that ilk.

  7. Patrick says:
    June 7, 2006 at 4:23 pm

    well, we already have the LITO anyway!

  8. Corin says:
    June 7, 2006 at 7:30 pm

    Matt Cowgill,

    Is that better than “Howard cuts wages”!

    Anyway – you don’t link them – you just give them. Hope people take the bribe ………

    Corin

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