Betting Markets vs Polls: It's On

On Tuesday, I wrote:

OK, now here’s a challenge for the betting agencies: why don’t one of you run a betting market on the two-party preferred vote? That would give us a direct head-to-head way of comparing polls and markets.

And Simon Jackman added:

A market on the national seat count would be great as well.

This afternoon, what should arrive in my inbox but emails from Portlandbet (announcing a national seat count market) and Sportingbet (announcing a 2PP market). Here are their odds, and my implied probabilities.

Portlandbet: Total Labor Seats
73 or less $4.25 10%
74 $26.00 2%
75 $21.00 2%
76 $21.00 2%
77 $17.00 3%
78 $15.00 3%
79 $14.00 3%
80 $11.00 4%
81 $10.00 4%
82 $10.00 4%
83 $8.00 5%
84 $8.00 5%
85 $8.00 5%
86 $9.00 5%
87 $10.00 4%
88 $10.00 4%
89 $10.00 4%
90 $11.00 4%
91 $12.00 4%
92 $12.00 4%
93 $13.00 3%
94 $16.00 3%
95 $17.00 3%
96 $21.00 2%
97 $26.00 2%
98 $26.00 2%
99 $34.00 1%
100 or more $26.00 2%

Sportingbet: What Percent of Two Party Preferred Vote Will Labor Get?  
Less than 48% $26.00      3%
48% to 49.99% $13.00      6%
50% to 51.99% $4.40      17%
52% to 52.99%  $3.50      21%
53% to 53.99% $2.75      27%
54% to 55.99% $3.75      20%
56% or more $11.00     7%

This now allows a very direct comparison between polls and betting markets. And for anyone who believes those 54% polls, why not put your money where your mouth is?

Update: Portlandbet is also running a market on the two-party vote.

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