Betting Markets vs Polls: It's On

On Tuesday, I wrote:

OK, now here’s a challenge for the betting agencies: why don’t one of you run a betting market on the two-party preferred vote? That would give us a direct head-to-head way of comparing polls and markets.

And Simon Jackman added:

A market on the national seat count would be great as well.

This afternoon, what should arrive in my inbox but emails from Portlandbet (announcing a national seat count market) and Sportingbet (announcing a 2PP market). Here are their odds, and my implied probabilities.

Portlandbet: Total Labor Seats
73 or less $4.25 10%
74 $26.00 2%
75 $21.00 2%
76 $21.00 2%
77 $17.00 3%
78 $15.00 3%
79 $14.00 3%
80 $11.00 4%
81 $10.00 4%
82 $10.00 4%
83 $8.00 5%
84 $8.00 5%
85 $8.00 5%
86 $9.00 5%
87 $10.00 4%
88 $10.00 4%
89 $10.00 4%
90 $11.00 4%
91 $12.00 4%
92 $12.00 4%
93 $13.00 3%
94 $16.00 3%
95 $17.00 3%
96 $21.00 2%
97 $26.00 2%
98 $26.00 2%
99 $34.00 1%
100 or more $26.00 2%

Sportingbet: What Percent of Two Party Preferred Vote Will Labor Get?  
Less than 48% $26.00      3%
48% to 49.99% $13.00      6%
50% to 51.99% $4.40      17%
52% to 52.99%  $3.50      21%
53% to 53.99% $2.75      27%
54% to 55.99% $3.75      20%
56% or more $11.00     7%

This now allows a very direct comparison between polls and betting markets. And for anyone who believes those 54% polls, why not put your money where your mouth is?

Update: Portlandbet is also running a market on the two-party vote.

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9 Responses to Betting Markets vs Polls: It's On

  1. Sinclair Davidson says:

    Looking at the odds at Portland, it looks like they’re saying the ALP will take 83 seat.

  2. Eben Peart says:

    Hi there

    83 seats is the favoured way – Andrew our prices have changed considerably since those above as we took some margin out of the market.

    Our TPP prices will be up shortly.

    Best regards
    Eben Peart.
    General Manager.
    http://www.portlandbet.com

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  4. Kevin Rennie says:

    TPP% does not equate to a number of seats. Even the various meters use different formula to work out a the consequences of a uniform swing. there is no such thing as a uniform swing. Id like to know the odds on that. I’m sure one of the statisticians could work it out.

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  6. Fred Argy says:

    Andrew, for dummos like me, please explain how we will be able to make “very direct comprisons between polls and betting markets”? They are both pointing clearly to a small to moderate Labor win. If Howard wins, they will both be wrong, although less so the betting markets? If Rudd wins by a big margin, they will also both be wrong but more so the betting markets? Is this right? Sorry I am lost and confused. Please get me out of my misery.

  7. Fred Argy says:

    PS Andrew. On the basis of the betting markets, what is your prediction for the outcome?

  8. Andrew Leigh says:

    Fred, the point that I’m making is that when you have betting markets forecasting the probability of winning, and polls forecasting 2PP, it’s trickier to compare them. The above are basically markets in the same thing that the polls are trying to forecast.

    I’ve posted separately on the lastest betting market forecasts.

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