More Contingent Presidential Markets

I mentioned recently Robin Hanson’s discussion of the contingent Presidential nomination prediction markets. Now Robin draws our attention to some new markets.

Wow.  Under “politics,” next to the “US Pres. Decisions” section I announced Friday, Intrade.com now has an “Impact of next Pres.” section, with markets for conditional estimates of these four parameters:

  • eco growth to be at least 2.5% over the next three years,
  • unemployment rate to be less than 5% at end of 2011,
  • number of violent crimes in 2010 to be less than in 2007, and
  • Democrats to control House of Rep’s after 2010 mid-terms,

given each of these seven candidates: Clinton, Obama, Edwards, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney.  Cool!  I don’t see any orders in these markets yet though, so it is hard to tell how much liquidity they will have.

A limitation of these markets is that they’re likely to be thin. This is driven by two problems. First, they’re harder to understand than the ‘who will win?’ markets. Second, punters will be disinclined to put their money into Intrade’s bank account until 2010/2011. Hopefully someone (the Iowa Electronic Markets folk, perhaps?) will step forward to solve them.

For a really radical view on contingent markets, check out Robin’s paper Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs.

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