As election tragics may have noticed, I’ve been converting election betting odds into winning probabilities on my website on a daily basis since the campaign started. Since the betting opened, the Coalition has always been a firm favourite. Today and yesterday, the chances of winning were Howard 66%, Latham 34%.
But die-hard ALP supporters may gain succour from Port Adelaide’s win yesterday. Prior to the game, Latham picked underdogs Port to win. The betting odds prior to the start of the game? Port Adelaide paid $2.75 (making them a 35% chance), while Brisbane paid $1.48 (a 65% chance). So Port’s odds were almost exactly the same as Latham’s currently are. Based on the betting odds, I’d still say Howard is likely to win on October 9. But as Port shows, 35% chances do come through, probably about 35% of the time…..