For anyone who’ll be in Canberra next Wednesday, I’ll be doing a talk on election betting at the Kurrajong Hotel at 6pm. Details below.
In a study following the 2001 election, Andrew Leigh and Justin Wolfers analysed three tools for forecasting federal elections – opinion polls, economic models, and election betting – and found that the betting markets were a more accurate predictor of the result than the opinion polls. What do the polls, the betting markets, and economic models now say about who will win the election on 9 October 2004? And how might prediction markets be used to aggregate information in a variety of different contexts?
Dr Andrew Leigh is an economist in the Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University. He holds a PhD from Harvard University, and his research has been featured in the Age, Australian, Australian Financial Review, Economist, New York Times, Sydney Morning Herald, Time and Washington Post. Andrew is the co-editor (with David Burchell) of The Prince’s New Clothes: Why do Australians Dislike Their Politicians? and the co-author (with Macgregor Duncan, David Madden and Peter Tynan) of Imagining Australia: Ideas for Our Future. During the 2004 election campaign, his website – http://www.andrewleigh.com – will show a daily update of the election betting odds, converted to winning probabilities.