Monthly Archives: October 2004

Are the Liberals the Party of the Poor?

Dennis Shanahan today picks up Federal Liberal Party Director Brian Loughnane’s claim that the Coalition is winning a bigger share of the poor than ever before. In a recent paper, using post-election studies from 1966-2001, I found the opposite trend, … Continue reading

Posted in Australian issues | 4 Comments

How Would Kerry & Bush Affect Australia?

Michael Fullilove, a friend of mine who works at the Lowy Institute, has a new report out on the foreign policies of Bush & Kerry (for the whole report, click here; for a summary article in the SMH, click here). … Continue reading

Posted in Global issues

Some more reviews of Imagining Australia

Amidst the chaos of the last few weeks, I fell a wee bit behind on the old review front, so a quick wrap up on the latest….There was a review of IA in the Journal of Australian Studies’ Review of … Continue reading

Posted in Book launch stuff

US launch of Imagining Australia — this Thursday in DC

Readers of Imagining Australia will know that one of the themes that we explore in the book is what we call “Australian internationalism”. Over the last few decades, Australia has become global in ways that is often not recognized. One … Continue reading

Posted in Book launch stuff | 3 Comments

Polarisation in American Politics

Paul Sheehan has a piece in today’s SMH on “Red and Blue America”. His conclusion – that American politics is more ideologically polarised today than in the past – is basically right. But he uses the wrong set of facts … Continue reading

Posted in Global issues | 4 Comments

Two Cultures

David Burchell has a piece in today’s AFR. I think it’s so good, he’s let me post the unedited version. “Two Cultures” David Burchell About half-way through the federal election campaign a poster appeared on a telephone-pole not far from … Continue reading

Posted in Election | 8 Comments

Who Will Win the US Presidential Poll?

Who’s going to be the next US President? Those Australians who took a moment on Saturday to watch the second presidential debate would’ve seen a fired-up and fact-filled John Kerry (sidenote: why aren’t Australian election debates peppered with as much … Continue reading

Posted in Global issues | 4 Comments

How did the Pollsters, Punters and Pundits Perform?

I have a piece in today’s Sydney Morning Herald, assessing the predictive powers of pollsters, punters and pundits. Again, the punters appear to have performed at least as well as the pollsters – methinks justifying the greater media prominence that … Continue reading

Posted in Election | 1 Comment

The Other October 9 Election

Ben Heraghty, a good friend of mine from Boston days, has a terrific piece in the Canberra Times on tomorrow’s election in Afghanistan. Amidst the horsetrading and jostling of the past few weeks, it’s worth occasionally being reminded of how … Continue reading

Posted in Global issues

Where are the Brave Pundits Now?

By my reckoning, William Bowe, who runs the Poll Bludger site, is the only Australian expert who has made a prediction for each of the 150 electorates in Australia (click on his state links in the red sidebar). I’m not … Continue reading

Posted in Election

Polls as Probabilities and Political Donations

I have a couple of pieces in the papers today. The first piece, in the Sydney Morning Herald, looks at political donations, and the evidence we have on whether donors buy favours. The US evidence seems to suggest that they … Continue reading

Posted in Election

Australia's 3 Greatest Contributions to the World

Neil Hickey did a story for the Sunshine Coast Daily last week on the three best things Australia has given the world. He started from a line in a Ken Burns documentary, that the UK’s leading contributions are tea, the … Continue reading

Posted in Australian issues | 9 Comments

A mali estremi, estremi rimedi

Here’s one for ALP enthusiasts. What if you could choose between Latham+Bush winning, or Howard+Kerry winning? My guess is that most ALP supporters would select Howard+Kerry. Certainly, I haven’t yet met a member of the Labor Party who’d choose the … Continue reading

Posted in Election | 4 Comments

Who's Winning the Campaign?

A week before Australia votes, it seemed timely to look at the betting odds, and consider what they can tell us about how the campaign has gone. Week 1: Coalition up 3%. Week 2: Coalition up 8% (the week of … Continue reading

Posted in Election | 2 Comments