How did the Pollsters, Punters and Pundits Perform?

I have a piece in today’s Sydney Morning Herald, assessing the predictive powers of pollsters, punters and pundits. Again, the punters appear to have performed at least as well as the pollsters – methinks justifying the greater media prominence that election betting markets have received since Justin Wolfers and I wrote our AJPS piece in 2002.

Update: Centrebet is now allowing people to bet on the next Australian election – due by 2007. Coalition pays $1.33, ALP pays $3.00, suggesting that it thinks Labor is only a 31% chance to win next time around.

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