With Mark Latham resigning, Centrebet has shortened the odds of a Labor victory at the next election (probably 2007) from $3.00 to $2.55. What does this mean?
Taking into account the Coalition odds, and hence the bookies’ profit margin, Centrebet thought that Labor under Latham had a 33% chance of victory. Now, it thinks that Labor under another leader has a 39% chance of victory.
That’s a gap, but not a monumental one. During the election campaign, Latham’s Centrebet-derived chance of victory bobbed around between 40% (first 5 days of the campaign) and 23% (the last 4 days of campaign).