Labor's odds shorten

With Mark Latham resigning, Centrebet has shortened the odds of a Labor victory at the next election (probably 2007) from $3.00 to $2.55. What does this mean?

Taking into account the Coalition odds, and hence the bookies’ profit margin, Centrebet thought that Labor under Latham had a 33% chance of victory. Now, it thinks that Labor under another leader has a 39% chance of victory.

That’s a gap, but not a monumental one. During the election campaign, Latham’s Centrebet-derived chance of victory bobbed around between 40% (first 5 days of the campaign) and 23% (the last 4 days of campaign).

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3 Responses to Labor's odds shorten

  1. Swooning says:

    All very interesting about the odds on labor’s victory in 2007, but I have a serious news flash for the year 2005: has anybody bothered to notice how HOT Macgregor Duncan is? When I saw his pictures (esp. “Breakfast at Bronte’s,” the sun glimmering on his skin, like an angel glowing amidst his halo), I was literally assaulted by the hotness emanating from the url. I mean he’s like freaking top 5% in the world when it comes to being hot.

    Is he overweight/fat? Is his hair thinning? Is he short? If the answer to those questions is no then he’s moved up to like top 3% keeping in mind that above that is like, movie stars and models -only they lack the smarts so then really, since he wrote a book and all, Mr. Duncan is like top 1%.

    Cheers!

  2. Sonjhos says:

    I was puzzled by Kim Beasley’s comments about having economic prosperity with everyone sharing in the spoils.Does this mean higher taxation for us all?Is he going to make the Multi-nationals pay more?Is everyone going to share in the pain of achieving this prosperity?Are Govt Bureauracies going to expand to provide micky mouse jobs like we had in the Gough era?I fear it’ll be the old story of Labor killing incentive to work and we’ll be back to the good old “banana republic days”Labor doesn’t have the discipline or the economic nauce and is too busy pleasing all the feel good minority groups that want to suck off the public purse.

  3. Bryan Palmer says:

    Andrew, The odds on Gallup have lengthened at Centrebet. The Coalition is paying $1.60 for a win and Labor is paying $2.20. That translates to a win probability of 58% for the Coalition and 42% for Labor.

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