Forecasting Elections

Justin Wolfers and I have just finished a paper on the 2004 Australian election, looking at how well the betting markets, pollsters and economic models forecast the result – and in particular whether they picked that Howard would increase his majority. All comments welcome.

Particular thanks to fellow blogger Bryan Palmer, who was generous enough to share with us all the betting data that he meticulously collected during the election campaign.

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1 Response to Forecasting Elections

  1. Andrew

    Nice paper. I’ve blogged about it (and John Quiggin’s comments) on my weblog, which has atracted some hits. Keep ’em coming!

    Cheers

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