Betting on the Liberal Leadership

Those publicity hounds at Centrebet have opened a market on who will lead the Coalition to the next election. Howard and Costello are surprisingly close. Taking into account Centrebet’s whopping 25% profit margin, the market has Howard as a 44% chance, and Costello as a 40% chance, with Nelson, Abbott, Turnbull and Downer making up the rest of the field. The surprise for me was that their market has Nelson (7%) ahead of Abbott (6%).

Another way of looking at this is to say if Howard resigns, who will take over? Then the probabilities are Costello 69%, Nelson 13%, Abbott 11%, Turnbull 3%, Downer 1%, anyone else 4%.

More interestingly, Centrebet’s top 3 to win Big Brother 2005 are Logan (either), Glenn and Dean. Lowest chance is Constance.

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