In Betting Markets, There's No Such Thing as Insider Trading

President Bush isn’t due to announce his nominee to the Supreme Court for another hour, but the markets seem pretty certain they have the answer. On Tradesports, DC Appeals Circuit judge John Roberts’ current odds are 99%. Full odds over the fold.

Next Nominee to Supreme Court (Rule 1.8 Applies) Others on Request
SUPREME.ALITO
Judge Samuel Alito to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.3 0.2 734 -0.9
SUPREME.LOVEKOURLIS
Rebecca Love Kourlis to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.2 0.1 235 -0.9
SUPREME.BROWN
Justice Janice Brown to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.1 2797 -1.9
SUPREME.EASTERBROOK
Judge Frank Easterbrook to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.5 319 +0.2
SUPREME.GARZA
Judge Emilo Garza to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.4 1693 -14.6
SUPREME.JONES
Judge Edith H Jones to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.3 0.5 0.3 3469 -6.7
SUPREME.KOZINSKI
Judge Alex Kozinski to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.4 0.4 434 +0.2
SUPREME.LUTTIG
Judge J MIchael Luttig to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.2 1575 -4.9
SUPREME.MCCONNELL
Judge Michael W McConnell to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.1 684 -4.0
SUPREME.OLSON
Theodore Olson to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.4 783 -1.6
SUPREME.HATCH
Senator Orrin Hatch to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.2 0.5 0.2 923 -1.8
SUPREME.WILKINSON
Judge J Harvie Wilkinson to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.2 0.5 0.2 356 -0.3
SUPREME.CORNYN
Senator John Cornyn to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.2 0.5 0.3 753 -2.1
SUPREME.GONZALES
Attorney General Alberto R Gonzales to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.3 0.1 4812 -14.9
SUPREME.ROBERTS
Justice John G Roberts to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 99.0 99.2 99.2 1617 +97.3
SUPREME.THOMPSON
Larry D Thompson to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.1 839 -4.9
SUPREME.CLEMENT
Judge Edith Clement to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.2 0.3 0.2 4327 -14.8
SUPREME.OWEN
Judge Priscilla Owen to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.1 2379 -4.9
SUPREME.ABRAHAMSON
Justice Shirley Abrahamson to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.2 0.2 415 -0.1
SUPREME.ESTRADA
Miguel Estrada to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.4 0.2 535 -1.8
SUPREME.CANTEROIII
Justice Raoul G. Cantero III to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.3 240 -0.3
SUPREME.BOGGS
Judge Danny J Boggs to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.4 40 -1.6
SUPREME.PRADO
Judge Ed Prado to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.2 0.5 0.7 204 -0.9
SUPREME.SOTOMAYOR
Judge Sonia Sotomayor to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.3 0.1 404 -1.6
SUPREME.YOUNG
Judge Robert P Young to be Nominated as US Supreme Court Justice
M 0.1 0.5 0.4 20 -0.6
Age of Next Nominee at time of announcement (Rule 1.8 Applies)
SUPREME.+40YRS
Next Nominee to the Supreme Court to be ON or OVER 40 Years old at time of announcement
M 95.0 97.0 0 0
SUPREME.+45YRS
Next Nominee to the Supreme Court to be ON or OVER 45 Years old at time of announcement
M 90.0 99.9 98.7 107 +6.7
SUPREME.+50YRS
Next Nominee to the Supreme Court to be ON or OVER 50 Years old at time of announcement
M 75.0 98.0 91.3 142 +20.3
SUPREME.+55YRS
Next Nominee to the Supreme Court to be ON or OVER 55 Years old at time of announcement
M 0.1 49.5 55.0 208 +5.0
SUPREME.+60YRS
Next Nominee to the Supreme Court to be ON or OVER 60 Years old at time of announcement
M 10.0 14.9 134 0
SUPREME.+65YRS
Next Nominee to the Supreme Court to be ON or OVER 65 Years old at time of announcement
M 0.1 3.0 2.0 3 0
Gender of Next Nominee to replace O’Connor(Rule 1.8 applies)
SUPREME.MALE
Next Nominee to the Supreme Court to be Male
M 93.0 34.0 174 -13.0
SUPREME.FEMALE
Next Nominee to the Supreme Court to be Female
M 7.0 40.5 581 -12.5
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5 Responses to In Betting Markets, There's No Such Thing as Insider Trading

  1. Sinclair Davidson says:

    You should be pleased, he’s a Harvard man. Mind you, he is a bit pink about the gills and the Bush’s have been known to make bad appointments (Souter, Mankiw etc.) On the other hand, if he turns out okay he’s young …

  2. Andrew Leigh says:

    Sinc, he sounds pretty scary to me, but that’s true of most of the putative nominees. The man clerked for Rehnquist, who (unlike Scalia) isn’t known for employing anyone who doesn’t share his opinions.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/19/politics/politicsspecial1/19cnd-judge.html?

  3. Steve Edney says:

    Is there anything to stop even the actual participants in the decision placing bets?

  4. Andrew Leigh says:

    Nope! Great, isn’t it? In recent Aussie elections, it’s been claimed that some marginal seat candidates bet on themselves.

  5. Steve Edney says:

    I’d be betting against myself as a hedge given there is three years livelyhood on the line. For some becoming a MP could be a financial loss I guess so its not unreasonable to hedge in that way as well.

    You do have to wonder why, in situations like the above that anyone not in the know would lay bets, and at what point it would be in the exchanges interest to try to put in rules stopping insider activity to increase volume.

Comments are closed.