Taking a Punt

Over at Marginal Revolution, there’s some interesting research going on. Tyler Cowen shows that Google’s internal prediction markets did a pretty good job of predicting the occurrence of events which were of strategic importance to the firm, while Alex Tabarrok discusses his research showing that contingent fees for lawyers are a good way of screening out frivolous lawsuits. (Of course, if only we could find a way to run prediction markets for lawsuits, we mightn’t need contingency fees.)

The betting market that everyone’s following today, of course, is tomorrow’s battle of the birds. Centrebet has the two teams basically level-pegging ($1.93 for Eagles, $1.87 for Swans).

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1 Response to Taking a Punt

  1. Sinclair Davidson says:

    Sydney has firmed to $1.80 and Eagles out to $2.00. The feeling in Melbourne is that Sydney will win. I’d like them to, but suspect WCE will win. They haven’t played well at the MCG this year, but may lift tomorrow. I also suspect the betting market has a ‘Melbourne bias’ (hopefull will have evidence on that one day). The market has St.Kilda, Sydney and WCE at $4.50 to win next year’s GF. Adelaide at $11.00 and the glorious Bombers at $26. Carlton (the cheaters) are out at $106. Pity, couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch…

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