Of course, you'd really like to be able to predict in advance how useful it'll be

A one-day forum on prediction markets is scheduled for Feb 3 in NYC. For anyone with a spare day and a spare $399, it might be worth attending. Full program over the fold.

Prediction Markets Summit :: Feb 3, 2006 :: New York City
Registration Open

Prediction Markets Summit News Jan 17, 2006:

  • Charles Polk, CEO, Common Knowledge Markets, to lead a conversation on Pandemic Flu Prediction Market (PFPF) and the H5N1 Virus Outbreak.
  • Thomas W. Malone, Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School, founder MIT Center for Coordination Science, Author, "The Future of Work" is a keynote speaker.
  • Yahoo! Research to sponsor a Pre-Summit Reception at their offices in Manhattan (for registered participants only).

Prediction Markets Summit News Jan 5, 2006:

Prediction Markets Summit Background:

Smart mobs, swarms, information markets, crowd wisdom, social networks, communities, idea exchanges and knowledge markets — all are getting a lot of popular attention today. Why? Because they are highly effective… See: http://tinyurl.com/8nmbd

Top knowledge scientists, information market practitioners, business school professors, think tanks, market visionaries and tool providers are converging February 3, 2006 for an important, one-day Prediction Markets Summit in New York City on the future of Prediction Markets. http://www.kmcluster.com/nyc/PM/PM.htm

An HBR article, Bringing the Market Inside, will help provide an introduction to prediction and information markets. Here is a description from HBS online —

During the dot-com boom, many people saw the potential for new communication technologies to enable radically new business models, but they were far too optimistic about the speed with which the revolution would occur. Now, as the bitter disillusionment of the dot-com bust begins to fade, we have a chance to think again–this time more rationally–about how best to take advantage of the remarkable changes these new technologies are gradually making possible. One such change is the ability to create markets inside companies, allowing decision making to be decentralized and introducing some of the efficiency, flexibility, and motivating influence of free markets. In this article, the author examines this nascent form of business organization, exploring the benefits as well as the potential risks. BP, for example, met its goal of reducing the company’s greenhouse gas emissions nine years ahead of schedule, not by setting and enforcing targets for each division but by allowing business unit heads to buy and sell emissions permits among themselves using an electronic trading system. And Hewlett-Packard recently experimented with a system that allowed employees to buy and sell predictions about likely printer sales, using a kind of futures contract. The markets ended up predicting the actual printer sales with much more accuracy than official HP forecasts. At a fundamental level, these changes are enabled by the fact that electronic technologies allow information to be widely shared at little cost. This simple fact has a profound implication for organizing businesses. When more people have more information, they can use it to make their own well-informed decisions, appropriate to local circumstances, instead of following orders from above. As a result, even very large companies can benefit from the collective wisdom of their employees. [HBS Online]

For example, the beleaguered notion of enterprise knowledge sharing benefits from markets. Knowledge markets are the deliberate engineering of these social networks and complex enterprise communities into far more useful, measurable, competitive and effective enterprise knowledge assets. This has been discovered by Microsoft, Google, Yahoo!, IBM, HP and others. For example, Tom Malone will cover at your community gathering Feb 3, 2006 in NYC on how Intel uses prediction markets for manufacturing capacity planning — a critical opportunity.

For societal issues, your Summit will examine the Pandemic Flu Prediction Market (PFPF) and its recent success in forecasting the outbreak of the H5N1 Virus in Turkey last week. Quite simply, prediction markets are far superior than expert panels, management teams or focus groups as a means to aggregate information and create new knowledge.

Your New York, Toronto and New England Clusters will examine knowledge markets on Feb 3, in Manhattan. See this link: http://tinyurl.com/8nmbd All are welcome.

Please visit your agenda for the Prediction Markets Summit — Friday, February 3, 2006, in New York City  http://tinyurl.com/8nmbd. Secure, online site Registration in advance required. Participant sponsor tuition includes all meals, two books, Pre-Summit Reception, materials, refreshments and collaborative workgroup subscription for one-year. Registration is open but filling fast given the importance of prediction markets. Participation is limited to optimize conversation. Visit the event Web to register and for further information.



John Maloney
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