A trillion here, a trillion there, and soon you're talking real money

Interestingly, the new paper by Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz, estimating the cost of war in Iraq at around $1 trillion, is quite similar to the pre-war number that Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz and I put forward in 2003, based on our analysis of how the US stockmarket responded to changes in the probability of war.

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