Briand Reversed?

Mark Bahnisch notes some odd figures in Caroline Overington’s analysis of youth voting trends. I haven’t written about age patterns and the 2004 poll, but my paper on the 1966-2001 elections found precisely the opposite pattern to the one Overington claims to have identified, so I’m pretty sceptical when she says that the youth of today have taken a sudden right turn.

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5 Responses to Briand Reversed?

  1. Pingback: Larvatus Prodeo

  2. Fred Argy says:

    Andrew, Overington is obviously wrong to say that young people leaned predominantly to the Right in 2004. But isn’t there a bit of a trend under Howard for young people to be less Left than before?

  3. Andrew Leigh says:

    Fred, you’re right, and I should’ve been more precise. There are two trends going on here.

    1. Relative to 1998, the Coalition gained ground in both the 2001 and 2004 elections. I’m pretty sure it did better among rich and poor, young and old, male and female, blonde and brunette.

    2. Then there are the differential trends. I took Overington to be arguing that the young shifted more towards the Coalition than the middle aged and elderly – ie. that the “age voting gap” had closed. Of that, I’m unconvinced, given that my pre-04 research found the opposite.

    If (1) is enough to make a story, then I look forward to the articles on “Howard’s Blonde Babes”.

  4. Geoff R says:

    It is common for even good researchers to ignore the fact that electoral trends are usually reflected across most social groups. Gary King wrote a good paper on Nazi eelctoral support in which he highlighted this.

  5. Matt Cowgill says:

    I’ve long thought the whole kerfuffle about “South Park Conservatives” to be a bit of a misunderstanding on the part of some ageing commentators.

    South Park has a tone of generalised disaffection of mockery towards both parties/ideological frameworks.

    Also if you watch Team America: World Police, it’s pretty clear that they are taking the piss otu of everyone vaguely involved in politics

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