Here are the last three AC Nielsen polls:
- 20-23 April: ALP 51% of the 2PPÂ vote
- 18-20 May:Â ALP 54% of the 2PPÂ voteÂ Â
- 15-18 June: ALP 51% of the 2PPÂ vote
And here are the corresponding SMH headlines:
- Voters spurn tax cuts and swing to ALP (22 May)
- ALP vote falls after Beazley vow to workers (19 June).
Let me give a more likely explanation. Not since 1977 has aÂ major party has gotten 54% of the 2PP vote. So as I argued in May, we’re probably just seeing statistical noise in the May poll. Indeed, when you take into account the error margins, neither of these movements is particularly statistically significant. (By contrast, as Bryan Palmer recently reported, the betting markets have been rock-steady in the Coalition’s favour.)
Ah, statistical noise – it must be every editor’s dream. So much easier than writing about those boring old policy thingamagies.
Update: More from Mark B.