I'll bet they're shaking in their boot

Well, I’ll be durned. Tradesports has Australia a 25% chance of beating Italy (1am Tue). Admittedly, it also says that our chance of taking the Cup back to Sydney are about 0.8%.

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5 Responses to I'll bet they're shaking in their boot

  1. Corin says:

    I was in the main piazza in Milan watching with thousand of irate Italians’ when South Korea beat Italy in 2002 QF. You never know!

    There was Parliamentary inquiry afterward into a number of off-sides and Totti being sent-off! They have such a way of making sport into theatre, even into politics.

    The South Korean player (Ahn )who scored the winning goal was sacked by Fiorentina as well – then re-instated the next week. Watch out Bresciano!

  2. Patrick says:

    They have such a way of making sport into theatremoney, even into politics.

  3. derrida derider says:

    What are the Italian bookies offering? When one party’s prices are out of line with reality, there must surely be opportunites for arbitrage (eg bet on the Socceroors with Tradesport and layoff the bet with the Italian bookies).

    I once used to work with a bloke who had actually made a living for years as a professional punter. He had a strategy any hedge fund would be proud of:

    1) Look for a sporting contest with a small following (ie thin betting market)
    2) Bet against the home team with a follower from their home town (they’ll bet with their heart not their head).
    3) Always have the funds held in escrow (eg by the bar keeper) to avoid defaults.
    3) Where possible, lay off the bet with an out of town party (eg a betting agency).

  4. Corin says:

    derrida derrider, the new Waterhouse method of the perfect bet is born! This reminds of the MIT postgrads who learnt to count cards and beat the Casino at Blackjack – it’s great except tecnically against the law I believe. Could be wrong about spread bets – but isn’t it illegal??

  5. WaltDe says:

    Very good reading. Peace until next time.
    WaltDe

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