$93 oil

Nicholas Day draws my attention to the World Economic Forum’s global risks prediction markets (“Trading uncertainty for collective wisdom”). The markets are run by NewsFutures, and deserve to be making more frequent appearances in press reports.

What will be the peak spot price of a barrel of oil (Brent Crude) in 2006?

Prediction: US$93

How many severe weather events will occur in 2006?

Prediction: 126 events

How many U.S. troops will be in Iraq on 31 December 2006?

Prediction: 127k

How many countries will report a human case of avian flu in 2006?

Prediction: 17 countries

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