Wanna bet?

On the principle that “none of us is as smart as all of us”, Inkling now allows people to establish their own prediction markets (hat tip: Ian Holsman). The big questions are: will enough people bet for the prices to be reliable? And will people be deterred by the fact that they’re only betting for monopoly money, not real cash? If we can clear those hurdles, here are a few prediction markets we might want to run in Australia:

  • Unemployment will be above 5% in September 2007 (it was 4.9% in August 2006)
  • If unemployment is above 5% in September 2007, Labor will win the 2007 federal election (all bets returned if unemployment below threshold)
  • Peter Beattie will enter federal politics before 31 December 2007
  • There will be a major terrorist strike in Sydney before 31 December 2006
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4 Responses to Wanna bet?

  1. I wouldn’t bet money on the third one.

    Speaking as someone who just got a $900 payout from Centrebet for correctly picking the number of Labor seats won in the Qld election 🙂

  2. taust says:

    1.Unemployment Less than 5% so no $Mon200

    2 Labor will lose the next election $Mon50

    3 Queensland adminstrative disaster will strike prior to Beattie jumping to Federal so No $Mon100

    4 Chance of a terrorist act occuring in a given location extremly low so No. $Mon500

  3. Pingback: Everything about Prediction Markets » Blog Archive » Wanna bet?

  4. derrida derider says:

    My God, what’s happened to me? I was going to make exactly the same bets as taust. Am I becoming an RWDB?

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