Exunt

After the exit poll debacle of 2004, it doesn’t look like anyone’s relying on exit polls this time around. Above is the trade price and volume on the Tradesports contract for GOP House control (current estimate: 17%). 

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2 Responses to Exunt

  1. Sinclair Davidson says:

    Yesterday, Intrade had a Republican victory at 21 percent. Some people were talking about late rallies in the polls, but the betting market wasn’t buying that. Many US libertarians are voting against the Republicans (or at least said they would). Quite right. They have been in office too long, and taken advantage of Bush’s inability to veto irresponsible spending.

  2. Sinclair Davidson says:

    It looks like the US electorate is punishing the Republicans over the Iraq war. Even those Republicans who have consistently voted against the war have suffered. I wonder what this implies for the UK elections in 3-4 years time, if anything. I’d be surprised if a similar backlash occured here. (1) Our government has been fiscally responsible and not aliented economic conservatives and (2) the US Democrats have run fairly conservative candidates in many seats – the ALP are still too looney to elect.

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