Obama's Odds

US Senator Barack Obama has created an exploratory committee for his presidential bid. While this has been billed as big news by some local journos, the betting markets seem to have regarded it as being as predictable as the next act in an Indonesian Wayang puppet show. Obama’s Tradesports odds didn’t change at all on the news (still 1 in 5 of being the Democratic nominee). It’ll be interesting to see if they shift when he launches on February 10.

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9 Responses to Obama's Odds

  1. Patrick says:

    I’m not sure why someone who appears fairly conversant with American politics bothers reading Australian reporting of American politics – the Age publishes Maureen Dowd for pete’s sake!

  2. Bring Back CL's blog says:

    stop baracking for him Andrew .

    by the way another person from that state with about that experience went onto become President.

    Honest Abe

  3. David Mathews says:

    Andrew, how about a Edwards-Obama ticket with Barack taking over in 2016?

  4. Patrick says:

    Even less chance than Barack for president in 2008! Edwards impressed a lot of people, but can he beat:
    a) Billary,
    b) any law-and-order republican candidate?

    I think no and no.

  5. Bring Back CL's blog says:

    would a supporter be known as a barracker?

    Good VP candidate for Billary which would mean he would be a Presidential candidate with gas in 2016!

    I would have thought Iraq means Republicans are nogo

  6. Patrick says:

    I would have thought Iraq means Republicans are nogo ‘ – unfortunately, eighteen months of democratic Congress probably means the same thing – the question is whether things change in that time in Iraq, otherwise the race is between two no-gos.

    Thus the ever-rising interest in independent candidates: McCain – Bredesen anyone?

  7. Bring Back CL's blog says:

    Patrick ,

    the name of the last successful independent candidate?

  8. David Mathews says:

    Surely the Republicans will move to McCain as a credible, moderate alternative to the neo-con Bush years and the liberal centre-left of the Democrats.

    Mmm, so is it Obama as Matt Santos and McCain as Arnold Vinick?? (No, I won’t spoil The West Wing plot…)

  9. Patrick says:

    For effective purposes Andrew Johnson 1865.

    But I didn’t mean to imply that one would win, just that the effective combination of no-go v no-go made independents seem more attractive than usual, as did the fact that speculation centres around established and moderately popular political figures such as John McCain.

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