According to today’s Newspoll, if an election were held tomorrow, the ALP would win 56% of the two-party preferred vote, winning by the largest margin since 1966Â
World War II. Newspoll is effectively telling us that the Coalition’s odds of winning are below 1 in 10,000.
According to Centrebet, Labor pays $1.90, which means Labor is a 49% chance of winning the next election.
One reason I prefer markets to polls is that they’re more accurate (see here and here for evidence). But another is that polls just say some loopy stuff. I find it impossible to believe that either party ever has less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning.