I’ll be one of the three guests tonight on ABC Radio National’sÂ Australia Talks (the program formerly known as Australia Talks Back). The program goes to air from 6-7pm.
The topic is opinion polling, so naturally I just went to check the betting odds for the NSW and federal elections. I hadn’t realised that the Coalition is a 13% chance of winning (Debnam pays $7). I don’t remember ever having seen odds this long in an Australian two-horse race.
Of course, if you believe the polls as a predictive tool, then 13% won’t strike you as low at all. For example, the latest AC Nielsen poll (ALP 61 – Coalition 39) implies that Howard’s chances are less than one in a million.