Dennis Shanahan in todayâ€™s Oz:
While armchair critics out of the political loop cite professional betting as an election prediction, they forget betting markets drift about according to the polls and political news and commentary.
To which a natural rejoinder would be:
While commentators out of the academic loop often claim that betting markets merely follow the polls, they forget that such a hypothesis has been formally tested on a number of occasions, including in Australia. Moreover, a spate of careful studies show that the mean forecast error of election betting markets is lower than that of opinion polls. Therefore, journalists can better serve their readers by placing more emphasis on stable prediction markets and less on volatile opinion polls.