A Tale of Two Elections

As regular readers of this blog will know, I’m not a big fan of polls as election forecasting tools. But these ones do tell an interesting story – one that I expect will cause my Labor friends to smile, and my Coalition friends to wince.


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8 Responses to A Tale of Two Elections

  1. Dan says:

    The bottom right graph seems to be the two-party preferred rather than the primary vote.

  2. Andrew Leigh says:

    Dan, you caught the blog in mid-update. It should all look right now.

  3. A minor point of pedantry: The legend in the top-left graph (preferred PM in ’96) seems wrong (though I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m just confused).

    You’re clearly using blue for the Coalition and red for Labor, but in the lead up to the 1996 election, Keating was the PM and Howard was the opposition leader.

    It’s probably clearer to label the lines “Howard” and “Keating” in the ’96 graph versus “Howard” and “Rudd” in the ’07 to avoid the confusion of PM being red in the first and blue in the 2nd.

    Either way … interesting graphs. Thanks for the effort.

  4. Paul Frijters says:

    Centrebet has both parties almost even (latest: 1.83 for a labour win versus 1.95 for a coalition win). This is only possible if the people who put their money where their mouth is believe that the new-found support for labour as measured in these polls is wafer thin.

  5. Andrew Leigh says:

    John, there isn’t a mistake in the graph labels, though there are clearly different ways one could have drawn the charts.

    Paul, I’m also inclined to believe the betting markets over the polls, but this nonetheless seems a bit interesting.

  6. John Kotsopoulos says:

    Paul Frijtersit’s it’s spelt LABOR old chap. Also as a Centre Bet fellow said on Neil Mitchell a couple of days ago the money on Howard includes a large chunk that which was put on when Beazley was leader.

    Bookies follow the weight of money otherwise they are just punters themselves

    I rang 3aw and tried asking Mitchell for a true comparison of Rudd v Howard but he seemed less than interested and talked over me with a load of waffle

  7. Bill Thompson says:

    For those with defective colour perception the graphs are hopeless. Thank you John Barrdear for letting me know they were depicted in red and blue. Please, use dots and dashes, and colour them if you wish, but colour does not help me. Thank you.

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