Betting now open on all federal electorates

Portlandbet has just opened betting on all 150 seats for the 2007 federal election. In 2001 and 2004, Centrebet offered markets on 47 and 33 seats respectively, but this is a much more substantial undertaking. Even if you’re in the safest seat in the country, you can still bet on your local member being retained or unseated. Not only is it large-scale; it’s also pretty brave, since events like Labor losing Batman or the Coalition losing Mallee are such small probabilities.

(Disclosure: I gave some advice to Portlandbet on setting the odds, though my work was only one factor that went into deciding the opening odds.)

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6 Responses to Betting now open on all federal electorates

  1. Sacha says:

    Just had a look at the site – should be interesting once bets have really started. Currently the ALP is predicted to win Greenway, a safe Liberal seat! (Greenway used to be marginal Lib but changed dramatically in the redistribution).

  2. derrida derider says:

    There’s nothing brave about setting a book on long shots, Andrew (you can always lay off, after all, if you get a flood of money on it). It’s setting the books for favourites that requires a bit of courage.

  3. wayaway says:

    Hi DD… How do you lay off when you’re the only one up?

  4. Peter Brent says:

    No, I can’t see the bravery either, unless the odds were different first thing this morning. Successfully betting on Labor winning Melbourne gives you $0.00 profit, while the $19 for a Coalition win represents about one-tenth of the real chances of that happening.

  5. wayaway says:

    Yeah, it looks like they weren’t ‘brave’ in every market – whatever that means, but judging by the early movements (some considerable), they certainly seem to have ‘backed their opinion’ in some cases. It’ll be more interesting to see movement over time, I would’ve thought… this will be the longest timeline on many of these ‘markets’ in Oz election history.

  6. Pingback: simon jackman’s blog » daily updates of seat-by-seat betting markets

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