Betting market curio

I was just looking over the election odds while preparing for a radio interview (Orange ABC) on prediction markets, and noticed something I hadn’t seen before: Howard’s odds of retaining his own seat (61%) are now worse than not far from Latham’s odds of winning the federal election at this point in the 2004 cycle (46%).

Update: Line of the morning went to punter Bob, who was on just before me. He said that his dad always told him “don’t bet on anything that doesn’t speak”.

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5 Responses to Betting market curio

  1. Dave says:

    I think you meant that DOES speak. That’s the usual version anyway.

  2. Andrew Leigh says:

    I’m pretty sure I heard him correctly, but it’s quite possible that Bob or myself are twisting the aphorism.

  3. Seneca says:

    “Never bet on anything that talks” was the way I heard it first.

  4. EconoMan says:

    What were the respective prices Andrew?

    Isn’t Howard still favourite for Bennelong. My record of Centrebet prices for Latham doesn’t have Latham shorter than $2 even once. (at least 2 data points a month from Dec to August, every 3 or 4 days from September)

  5. Andrew Leigh says:

    EconoMan, thanks for the correction. You’re completely right, and the only saving grace is that I didn’t get time to mention this on air. I’ve corrected the post. For the record, the prices for Bennelong now are $1.48/$2.35 (61% Howard), and the prices for Latham at their peak in June 2004 were $1.70/$2.00 (46% Latham).

    [Tangentially, if you or anyone else would like the full price history for 2001 or 2004, I’m happy to pass it on. Just drop me an email.]

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