Regular commenter Sinclair Davidson just emailed to tell me that the reports ofÂ Cabinet infighting seems to have been had a big effect on the betting markets. For example, Portlandbet last week had John Howard a 39% chance to lose Bennelong. The latest odds have him a 47% chance to lose it.
I’m still stunned by the fact thatÂ if you correctly back the PM to hold his own seat, you’ll make a 74% return on your money.
Update: Some bookies have stopped taking bets. An insider emails this unconfirmed rumour “The word from the heavies around here is that Howard is dead. The cabinet is stiching up a plan to have a bloodless transition to Costello in a few days’ time.”
Another update: Looks like my insider was wrong. According to latest reports, Howard will lead the Coalition to the election.