You can tell me if you think I'm getting better on the drums

According to Simon Jackman’s aggregation of three bookmakers, the betting markets were suggesting a 56% chance of an ALP win on Sunday, and a 60% chance on Monday. Since the only real news in that period was the election debate, this not only implies that the markets think Rudd won the leaders’ debate (which seems to be the consensus of the pundits, worms and bloggers), but also that Rudd’s win in the debate will matter on polling day.

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9 Responses to You can tell me if you think I'm getting better on the drums

  1. gilmae says:

    I also think you are getting good. +1 for headline

  2. John Withheld says:


  3. Peter Wood says:

    I was very tempted to make a punt on labour winning the election after the debate. It wasn’t so much that Howard went badly in the debate, it was more the look on his face and tone in his voice that suggest that he was very pessimistic about winning the election, and that he does not like it. Howard’s loss of self-control when arguing about education funding suggests to me that his caused him increasing frustration. He no longer seems like the ruthless energetic cunning evil machiavellian political genius he used to be. He seems to have lost his “mojo” or something.

  4. Sinclair Davidson says:

    Is there some sort of MSM conspiracy against the betting markets? At the last lection they were covered by the Fin everyday. Yet this time there is silence – everyone saying the polls are the only information we have. Anyone else noticed this, or just me?

    (There was some discussion on Insiders).

  5. Michael W says:

    As a Labor (almost) loyalist I’m getting more nervous by the instantanesouness of the betting market shifts. Bennelong’s shift is the real worry (unless it has bounced back since the debate).
    But whatever the Fin Review is doing, the other media are certainly taking up the betting markets – mentioned in the Australian’s Weekend edition + Radio National this morning.

  6. Bring Back CL's blog says:

    could be his internal polling

  7. Spiros says:

    “the instantanesouness [sic] of the betting market shifts”

    It’s because they are so thin. One sizeable bet and whammo! we have a major shift in the probability of each side winning.

    And that’s for the punting on the election as a whole. The markets for individual seats where in a lot of cases there is no money bet at all (you can see this on Betfair) makes those odds meaningless.

  8. harry clarke says:

    I’ve tuned out recently from the betting markets but given the polls I find the 60% figure unbelevably low.

  9. helen anderson says:

    dr worm? is that you?

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