Almost election-eve, and Simon Jackman posts the latest betting marketÂ predictions.
Database last updated at 12:01 November 22 2007 (Sydney time)
Analysis tracks prices offered by three agencies: Centrebet, Portlandbet, Sportingbet
ALP favoured to win in 80 of 150 seats (# seats with average ALP win prob > .5)
ALP Expected Seat Count: 81.33 out of 150 seats. Yesterday: 81.44 out of 150. Computed as the sum of the 3-agency-average seat-by-seat ALP win probabilities.
National Market, 3 agency average probability of Labor win: 0.774 (Yesterday: 0.772)
In other words, if we ran the election four times, Howard would win once, and Rudd would win thrice. The polls are less diffident, with all but Galaxy suggesting a Labor landslide.
On the local races, I couldn’t help smiling atÂ this graph. Check out Lindsay – alreadyÂ more than a 90% chance toÂ fall to Labor – which went a little furtherÂ into the red yesterday.