According to the Iowa Electronic Markets, Obama is now a 58% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, and Clinton a 38% chance. Between them, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and the rest of the field are a 4% chance. And if the Saturday night Democratic debate was anything to go by, Edwards is now running to be Obama’s VP, and Richardson is running to be Clinton’s VP.
Update: Robin Hanson blogs on new Intrade contingent markets, which he argues can tell us how US voters should vote.
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OK! I got it wrong http://andrewleigh.com/?p=1306#comment-51057
An Obama-Edwards ticket is a powerful vote for change in anyone’s language.
Well that didn’t work so well, now did it?
I still think Hillary-Obama.
I still prefer McCain-Romney or Thompson-Romney.
And I don’t think Iowa and NH are irrelevant this year.
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