Update '08

According to the Iowa Electronic Markets, Obama is now a 58% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, and Clinton a 38% chance. Between them, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and the rest of the field are a 4% chance. And if the Saturday night Democratic debate was anything to go by, Edwards is now running to be Obama’s VP, and Richardson is running to be Clinton’s VP.

Update: Robin Hanson blogs on new Intrade contingent markets, which he argues can tell us how US voters should vote.

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4 Responses to Update '08

  1. David Mathews says:

    OK! I got it wrong http://andrewleigh.com/?p=1306#comment-51057

    An Obama-Edwards ticket is a powerful vote for change in anyone’s language.

  2. Matt says:

    Well that didn’t work so well, now did it?

  3. Patrick says:

    I still think Hillary-Obama.

    I still prefer McCain-Romney or Thompson-Romney.

    And I don’t think Iowa and NH are irrelevant this year.

  4. Pingback: Andrew Leigh » Blog Archive » More Contingent Presidential Markets

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