The ’08 race is changing so fast, I’m having trouble keeping up. Here’s the Iowa Electronic Markets’ estimates on the probability of various nominees on both sides.
- Democratic: Clinton 54%, Obama 45%, Edwards 2%, Rest 1%
- Republican: McCain 45%, Giuliani 20%, Huckabee 18%, Romney 13%, Thompson 3%, Rest 2%
Also, Intrade currently has a 59% probability on the US going into recession in 2008.
While we’re on US politics, I love the closing line of this Huckabee ad: “because Americans want the next US president to be like the guy who works with them, not the guy who laid them off”. I find Huckabee’s policies pretty awful, but if he ever ran for speechwriter-in-chief, I reckon he’d be terrific.