Registers and Recidivism

From Jonah Rockoff and JJ Prescott comes news that publicly accessible registers of convicted sex offenders (now in place across the US, perhaps coming soon to an Australian state near you) do not unambiguously reduce crime.

Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?
J.J. Prescott & Jonah E. Rockoff
In recent decades, sex offenders have been the targets of some of the most far-reaching and novel crime legislation in the U.S. Two key innovations have been registration and notification laws which, respectively, require that convicted sex offenders provide valid contact information to law enforcement authorities, and that information on sex offenders be made public. Using detailed information on the timing and scope of changes in state law, we study how registration and notification affect the frequency of sex offenses and the incidence of offenses across victims, and check for any change in police response to reported crimes. We find evidence that registration reduces the frequency of sex offenses by providing law enforcement with information on local sex offenders. As we predict from a simple model of criminal behavior, this decrease in crime is concentrated among “local” victims (e.g., friends, acquaintances, neighbors), while there is little evidence of a decrease in crimes against strangers. We also find evidence that community notification deters crime, but in a way unanticipated by legislators. Our results correspond with a model in which community notification deters first-time sex offenses, but increases recidivism by registered offenders due to a change in the relative utility of legal and illegal behavior. This finding is consistent with work by criminologists suggesting that notification may increase recidivism by imposing social and financial costs on registered sex offenders and making non-criminal activity relatively less attractive. We regard this latter finding as potentially important, given that the purpose of community notification is to reduce recidivism.

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One Response to Registers and Recidivism

  1. Molesworth says:

    It’s interesting that the NSW Police pretty clearly opposed the introduction of these sorts of laws when Debnam and the State Libs were running on them at the last NSW election.

    The police argument was expressly based on US studies showing that while private registers (like we have in NSW) are useful to law enforcement and get a higher compliance rate than you would think, public registers cause many, many offenders to skip town and not report to police whereever they end up. So the end result is that police often don’t know who the local pedophiles are and who they should be keeping an eye on if they start hanging out near the school. The Iemma Government bought this argument from the NSW Police, which leads to me to suspect that it must have been expressed fairly forcefully. NSW Labor Governments have rarely been averse to running tough law and order platforms, and I bet they would have been sorely tempted on this one if the evidence (and the cops) weren’t against them.

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