Intrade has opened several prediction market on Swine flu in the US. A chart of the current prices appears below (it was 35 at the time of posting, indicating that the market believes there is a 35% chance that more than 10,000 cases will be confirmed in the US by mid-year.
10,000 or more cases of A/H1N1 Swine Flu to be confirmed in the US before 30 Jun 2009
I’m not aware of any such markets that presently exist in Australia, but they would be extremely valuable for policy purposes.
While we’re on the subject, it would also be useful to have prediction markets on mid-2010 Australian unemployment. Justin Wolfers and I advocated this in 2007, but the policy need is much greater today.