Category Archives: Election

Two Cultures

David Burchell has a piece in today’s AFR. I think it’s so good, he’s let me post the unedited version. “Two Cultures” David Burchell About half-way through the federal election campaign a poster appeared on a telephone-pole not far from … Continue reading

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How did the Pollsters, Punters and Pundits Perform?

I have a piece in today’s Sydney Morning Herald, assessing the predictive powers of pollsters, punters and pundits. Again, the punters appear to have performed at least as well as the pollsters – methinks justifying the greater media prominence that … Continue reading

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Where are the Brave Pundits Now?

By my reckoning, William Bowe, who runs the Poll Bludger site, is the only Australian expert who has made a prediction for each of the 150 electorates in Australia (click on his state links in the red sidebar). I’m not … Continue reading

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Polls as Probabilities and Political Donations

I have a couple of pieces in the papers today. The first piece, in the Sydney Morning Herald, looks at political donations, and the evidence we have on whether donors buy favours. The US evidence seems to suggest that they … Continue reading

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A mali estremi, estremi rimedi

Here’s one for ALP enthusiasts. What if you could choose between Latham+Bush winning, or Howard+Kerry winning? My guess is that most ALP supporters would select Howard+Kerry. Certainly, I haven’t yet met a member of the Labor Party who’d choose the … Continue reading

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Who's Winning the Campaign?

A week before Australia votes, it seemed timely to look at the betting odds, and consider what they can tell us about how the campaign has gone. Week 1: Coalition up 3%. Week 2: Coalition up 8% (the week of … Continue reading

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Election betting talk

For anyone who’ll be in Canberra next Wednesday, I’ll be doing a talk on election betting at the Kurrajong Hotel at 6pm. Details below. In a study following the 2001 election, Andrew Leigh and Justin Wolfers analysed three tools for … Continue reading

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