Category Archives: Prediction Markets

Inspired by the Netflix contest, Nicholas Gruen and Anthony Goldbloom have created Kaggle, a site where would-be predictors go head-to-head to build a model that best forecasts the future. You can read more about it at Club Troppo, and at … Continue reading →

Has anyone been tracking betting odds for the Federal Coalition and NSW ALP before and after their recent leadership changes? I’m curious to know whether the markets think that the two caucuses made the right decision. Update: Skeptic points me … Continue reading →

I am a big fan of Philip Tetlock. From a recent article in The National Interest: What experts think—where they fall along the Left-Right spectrum—is a weak predictor of accuracy. But how experts think is a surprisingly consistent predictor. Relative … Continue reading →

My Wryside Economics talk today was on prediction markets. If you’re interested, you can download it from the ABC website.

Yesterday, I wrote an oped in the AFR arguing that we should have prediction markets on unemployment. This morning comes a press release from Centrebet: Leading financial bookmaker Centrebet has today released the country’s first market on the next national … Continue reading →

Intrade has opened several prediction market on Swine flu in the US. A chart of the current prices appears below (it was 35 at the time of posting, indicating that the market believes there is a 35% chance that more … Continue reading →