Category Archives: Prediction Markets

The Future Beaters

Inspired by the Netflix contest, Nicholas Gruen and Anthony Goldbloom have created Kaggle, a site where would-be predictors go head-to-head to build a model that best forecasts the future. You can read more about it at Club Troppo, and at … Continue reading

Posted in Prediction Markets | 1 Comment

Odds bleg

Has anyone been tracking betting odds for the Federal Coalition and NSW ALP before and after their recent leadership changes? I’m curious to know whether the markets think that the two caucuses made the right decision. Update: Skeptic points me … Continue reading

Posted in Prediction Markets | 7 Comments

Don’t trust a hedgehog to tell you about the future

I am a big fan of Philip Tetlock. From a recent article in The National Interest: What experts think—where they fall along the Left-Right spectrum—is a weak predictor of accuracy. But how experts think is a surprisingly consistent predictor. Relative … Continue reading

Posted in Prediction Markets

A bettor way of forecasting the future

My Wryside Economics talk today was on prediction markets. If you’re interested, you can download it from the ABC website.

Posted in Prediction Markets

Unemployment Betting

Yesterday, I wrote an oped in the AFR arguing that we should have prediction markets on unemployment. This morning comes a press release from Centrebet: Leading financial bookmaker Centrebet has today released the country’s first market on the next national … Continue reading

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A Better Crystal Ball

My oped today is on prediction markets. You can’t put acknowledgements on opeds, but if you could, this one would have read “Thanks to Nicholas Gruen and Robin Hanson for valuable comments on an earlier draft.” Not sure what my … Continue reading

Posted in Health economics, Macroeconomics, Prediction Markets | 6 Comments

Flu Betting

Intrade has opened several prediction market on Swine flu in the US. A chart of the current prices appears below (it was 35 at the time of posting, indicating that the market believes there is a 35% chance that more … Continue reading

Posted in Prediction Markets | 5 Comments