Category Archives: US Politics

My father – presently in Malaysia – emails an observation about the US Presidential race. This must be the very first US election where the candidates of both major political parties each spent some years living in Southeast Asia, our … Continue reading →

Who will be Obama’s running mate? According to Intrade, Clinton is the favourite, with a 24% chance. Next in line is Virginia Senator Jim Webb (19%) and Bill Richardson (8%). And reflecting the huge degree of uncertainty in such a pick, … Continue reading →

If you haven’t yet seen it, I can highly recommend watching Obama’s victory speech in St Paul, Minnesota (link above, transcript here). Behind his Philadelphia race speech, I think it’s the best of his career. (Clinton’s concession speech yesterday was also pretty good, though … Continue reading →

The latest issue of Scientific American has an article on prediction markets. Those who know the literature won’t learn that much from it, but it does have a neat history on the Iowa Electronic Markets. My favourite quote: When the … Continue reading →

Hard to know whether exit polling numbers have leaked yet (it’s coming up to 4pm East Coast US time), but Intrade has McCain an 89% chance of being Republican nominee, and Clinton and Obama both on 50%. Nailbiting. (FWIW, I’m … Continue reading →

The ’08 race is changing so fast, I’m having trouble keeping up. Here’s the Iowa Electronic Markets’ estimates on the probability of various nominees on both sides. Democratic: Clinton 54%, Obama 45%, Edwards 2%, Rest 1% Republican: McCain 45%, Giuliani … Continue reading →

I mentioned recently Robin Hanson’s discussion of the contingent Presidential nomination prediction markets. Now Robin draws our attention to some new markets. Wow.  Under “politics,” next to the “US Pres. Decisions” section I announced Friday, Intrade.com now has an “Impact … Continue reading →

According to the Iowa Electronic Markets, Obama is now a 58% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, and Clinton a 38% chance. Between them, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and the rest of the field are a 4% chance. And if … Continue reading →

Justin Wolfers is writing a series of columns on prediction markets for WSJ Online. Here’s his first.

In the New York Times, Daniel Kurztman catalogues 2007’s most laughable US political antics. My favourite paragraph: Best Fodder for the Late-Night Comedians: Senator Larry Craig (R-estroom) gave “new meaning to the word caucusing” (David Letterman) when he was caught … Continue reading →

Ed Glaeser, who is always worth reading, writes a feisty fact-filled review of Krugman’s recent pro-Democrat book. He begins: Human knowledge is produced by intellectual combat that exposes weak premises and faulty conclusions to withering challenge. We are often improved … Continue reading →

The Democrats’ CNN/YouTube debate last night was one of the best political things I’ve seen on TV for a long time. If you didn’t see it and are pressed for time, all the questions are here. My favourites were gay … Continue reading →

Last week I wrote about the congestion fee proposed by Republican mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg. Well, now it’s Independent Michael Bloomberg. Doubtless plenty of Democrats are keen to fuel his ambitions to be President Bloomberg, though the prospect of … Continue reading →

Aussie* Bec Hamilton has an op-ed in the Baltimore Sun, showing that young Americans regard Darfur as one of the most important foreign policy issues. at 18 percent. Darfur had more than three times the support found for negotiating peace … Continue reading →